Thank you for your registration!
Our team will review your details and reach about regarding your access to X-LNG.
.svg){kind=icon}
Return to website
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Market-Driven Changes in DES Long Flexibility Value: Comparative Analysis and Implications for Portfolio Management
Check out the full detailed analysis here
What this update covers
- Objective: Re‑run the May 2025 DES‑Long study with June 2025 market inputs to quantify the month‑over‑month change in optionality value and exercise likelihood.
- Portfolios:
- Base Portfolio: Standard FOB Long‑US to DES Short‑Asia flows (no flex)
- Asia Flex Portfolio: Base + optional DES‑Long Asia capability
- Method: Hundreds of Monte Carlo price paths for HH, JKM, and TTF; full portfolio re‑optimization on each path; results segmented by regular, high‑vol, and low‑vol regimes.
- Comparative layer: Direct delta versus the May environment—updated decision boundary and flex valuation under June forwards and volatility.
What changed since May
- Forward curves and levels: June HH/JKM/TTF levels shift relative netbacks, affecting whether Asian diversion improves economics.
- Asia–Europe spread dynamics: The JKM–TTF relationship moves the “exercise boundary” for DES‑Long; the boundary is recalculated and compared to May.
- Seasonality effects: Different monthly demand/price shapes alter which delivery windows are more likely to exercise the DES‑Long option.
- Volatility profile: Re‑tested under the June vol backdrop to show how extrinsic value expands or compresses with changed uncertainty.
- Portfolio routing: Re‑optimization highlights where vessel allocation and alternative contract matches adapt under June conditions.
Key insights for decision‑makers
- DES‑Long value is sensitive to both spreads and absolute price levels: It increases when JKM’s advantage over TTF (net of logistics) expands, and compresses when that advantage narrows.
- The exercise map moved: The JKM–TTF decision boundary shifts under June curves, updating the thresholds at which Asian DES‑Long becomes favorable.
- Timing matters: Seasonality in June alters which months are more/less likely to exercise; use these windows to refine hedging, nominations, and scheduling.
- Core mechanics are unchanged: Value still comes from portfolio‑wide re‑routing, improved long–short matching, and better vessel utilization rather than isolated deal economics.
Who benefits from the update
- Traders: Align hedge triggers and diversion decisions with the updated JKM–TTF exercise boundary.
- Origination/Structuring: Calibrate pricing and terms for DES‑Long optionality using June‑based deltas versus May.
- Portfolio & Risk teams: Refresh stress tests and value‑at‑risk style views under the new curve and volatility environment.
- Shipping/Scheduling: Adjust fleet plans and route preferences to the revised exercise likelihood by month.
.svg)
Legal Notice
Choose Language
Impressum
Angaben gemäß § 5 TMG
Calypso Ventures GmbH
Bismarckstraße 10/12
10625 Berlin
Handelsregister: HRB 239736 B
Amtsgericht Charlottenburg
Umsatzsteuer: DE342781749
Vertreten durch:
Michael Schach
Kontakt
Telefon: +49 30 41734423
E-Mail: [email protected]
Nutzungsvereinbarungen
Imprint
Disclosures according to German law § 5 TMG
Calypso Ventures GmbH
Bismarckstraße 10/12
10625 Berlin
Registered number: HRB 239736 B
Amtsgericht Charlottenburg (Germany)
VAT: DE342781749
Represented by:
Michael Schach
Contact
Phone: +49 30 41734423
E-Mail: [email protected]
User Agreements
Thank you for your registration!
Our team will review your details and reach about regarding your access to X-LNG.
Return to website
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Join the Email List
Thank you for your registration!
Our team will review your details and reach about regarding your access to X-LNG.
Return to website
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Thank you for your registration!
Our team will review your details and reach about regarding your access to X-LNG.
Return to website
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Market-Driven Changes in DES Long Flexibility Value: Comparative Analysis and Implications for Portfolio Management
Check out the full detailed analysis here
What this update covers
- Objective: Re‑run the May 2025 DES‑Long study with June 2025 market inputs to quantify the month‑over‑month change in optionality value and exercise likelihood.
- Portfolios:
- Base Portfolio: Standard FOB Long‑US to DES Short‑Asia flows (no flex)
- Asia Flex Portfolio: Base + optional DES‑Long Asia capability
- Method: Hundreds of Monte Carlo price paths for HH, JKM, and TTF; full portfolio re‑optimization on each path; results segmented by regular, high‑vol, and low‑vol regimes.
- Comparative layer: Direct delta versus the May environment—updated decision boundary and flex valuation under June forwards and volatility.
What changed since May
- Forward curves and levels: June HH/JKM/TTF levels shift relative netbacks, affecting whether Asian diversion improves economics.
- Asia–Europe spread dynamics: The JKM–TTF relationship moves the “exercise boundary” for DES‑Long; the boundary is recalculated and compared to May.
- Seasonality effects: Different monthly demand/price shapes alter which delivery windows are more likely to exercise the DES‑Long option.
- Volatility profile: Re‑tested under the June vol backdrop to show how extrinsic value expands or compresses with changed uncertainty.
- Portfolio routing: Re‑optimization highlights where vessel allocation and alternative contract matches adapt under June conditions.
Key insights for decision‑makers
- DES‑Long value is sensitive to both spreads and absolute price levels: It increases when JKM’s advantage over TTF (net of logistics) expands, and compresses when that advantage narrows.
- The exercise map moved: The JKM–TTF decision boundary shifts under June curves, updating the thresholds at which Asian DES‑Long becomes favorable.
- Timing matters: Seasonality in June alters which months are more/less likely to exercise; use these windows to refine hedging, nominations, and scheduling.
- Core mechanics are unchanged: Value still comes from portfolio‑wide re‑routing, improved long–short matching, and better vessel utilization rather than isolated deal economics.
Who benefits from the update
- Traders: Align hedge triggers and diversion decisions with the updated JKM–TTF exercise boundary.
- Origination/Structuring: Calibrate pricing and terms for DES‑Long optionality using June‑based deltas versus May.
- Portfolio & Risk teams: Refresh stress tests and value‑at‑risk style views under the new curve and volatility environment.
- Shipping/Scheduling: Adjust fleet plans and route preferences to the revised exercise likelihood by month.
Join the Email List
Thank you for your registration!
Our team will review your details and reach about regarding your access to X-LNG.
Return to website
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Legal Notice
Choose Language
Impressum
Angaben gemäß § 5 TMG
Calypso Ventures GmbH
Bismarckstraße 10/12
10625 Berlin
Handelsregister: HRB 239736 B
Amtsgericht Charlottenburg
Umsatzsteuer: DE342781749
Vertreten durch:
Michael Schach
Kontakt
Telefon: +49 30 41734423
E-Mail: [email protected]
Nutzungsvereinbarungen
Imprint
Disclosures according to German law § 5 TMG
Calypso Ventures GmbH
Bismarckstraße 10/12
10625 Berlin
Registered number: HRB 239736 B
Amtsgericht Charlottenburg (Germany)
VAT: DE342781749
Represented by:
Michael Schach
Contact
Phone: +49 30 41734423
E-Mail: [email protected]