Top Findings

• Value in every regime. Embedded call optionality added

~+$0.14/MMBtu (low vol)
+$0.20/MMBtu (base),
+$0.45/MMBtu (high vol)

→ Optionality is accretive even in calm markets.

‍

• Where value coes from: optionality is monetized mainly on the supply side, replacing higher-cost firm intake with cheaper US spot cargoes. US spot selection rises to ~46–49% with options vs 32–33% in the base. India/China placements fall to ~17–21% vs 23–26%.

• Volatility amplifies upside, preserves downside. Distributions show a right-skewed uplift with minimal negative outcomes — high volatility stretches the right tail (big wins) while keeping left tail near zero.

• Forwards underprice flexibility. Forward-based valuations miss ~$0.20–0.45/MMBtu of extrinsic optionality value.

‍

Strategic Takeaways (What Managers Should Do Tomorrow)

Secure US spot & freight access. US liquidity materially increases exercise value. Don't rely on forwards alone. Use journey-level, Monte Carlo valuation to price optionality and set exercise thresholds.

Operational templates: combine clear cancellation fees, port/regas constraints and exercise decision rules to capture value when markets move.

‍

Bottom Line

Flexibility pays - measurably. By combining operational realism (voyage constraints, regas slots, cancellation fees) with large-scale Monte Carlo optimization, European players can convert contractual optionality into repeatable P&L uplift and downside protection.