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Contract Negotiation in Calcasieu Pass - When LNG Fleet Modelling Creates Information Advantages in SPA Pricing Negotiations
Check out the full detailed analysis here
In Louisiana’s Calcasieu Pass, LNG producers and shippers face a familiar dilemma: how to divide the TTF–HH spread fairly — when the market’s “expected” prices often miss the real operational value of each SPA.
The Challenge: How can liquefiers and shippers uncover the true value of SPA pricing terms — beyond market expectations — to negotiate a fairer, more profitable contract?
Our Approach: Using X-LNG to conduct fleet modelling, we consider 4,000 possible contracts across 5 volume ranges and 4 adder values, integrating Monte Carlo price simulations over 2026–2027.
Strategic Findings
• Larger and more flexible volume ranges (2.7–3.8M MMBtu) consistently deliver higher operational efficiency and thus greater total value
• A small adjustment in adder (+0.5 USD/MMBtu) unlocks $40 Million in extra profit
• Linear modelling revealed clear relationships: for every extra 1 USD earned by the liquefier, the shipper’s cost typically rises by more than 1 USD — magnifying the impact of small price shifts📈
X-LNG Insight: By combining probabilistic pricing with operational fleet simulation, negotiators can quantify hidden value — transforming uncertainty into profit leverage.
In Negotiation: → Shipper discovers optimal volumes and scheduling for portfolio synergy, and can lock these into contracts to boost overall profits → Liquefier equipped with fleet insight can justify higher adders (+4.9 USD instead of +4.4 USD) → Both sides gain transparency, replacing “market price guessing” with data-backed confidence
Key Takeaway
Fleet Modelling is not just about logistics — it’s a negotiation tool. Precision simulation translates into 0.5 USD/MMBtu of pure profit advantage.
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Legal Notice
Impressum
Angaben gemäß § 5 TMG
Calypso Ventures GmbH
Bismarckstraße 10/12
10625 Berlin
Handelsregister: HRB 239736 B
Amtsgericht Charlottenburg
Umsatzsteuer: DE342781749
Vertreten durch:
Michael Schach
Kontakt
Telefon: +49 30 41734423
E-Mail: [email protected]
Nutzungsvereinbarungen
Imprint
Disclosures according to German law § 5 TMG
Calypso Ventures GmbH
Bismarckstraße 10/12
10625 Berlin
Registered number: HRB 239736 B
Amtsgericht Charlottenburg (Germany)
VAT: DE342781749
Represented by:
Michael Schach
Contact
Phone: +49 30 41734423
E-Mail: [email protected]
User Agreements
Contract Negotiation in Calcasieu Pass - When LNG Fleet Modelling Creates Information Advantages in SPA Pricing Negotiations
Check out the full detailed analysis here
In Louisiana’s Calcasieu Pass, LNG producers and shippers face a familiar dilemma: how to divide the TTF–HH spread fairly — when the market’s “expected” prices often miss the real operational value of each SPA.
The Challenge: How can liquefiers and shippers uncover the true value of SPA pricing terms — beyond market expectations — to negotiate a fairer, more profitable contract?
Our Approach: Using X-LNG to conduct fleet modelling, we consider 4,000 possible contracts across 5 volume ranges and 4 adder values, integrating Monte Carlo price simulations over 2026–2027.
Strategic Findings
• Larger and more flexible volume ranges (2.7–3.8M MMBtu) consistently deliver higher operational efficiency and thus greater total value
• A small adjustment in adder (+0.5 USD/MMBtu) unlocks $40 Million in extra profit
• Linear modelling revealed clear relationships: for every extra 1 USD earned by the liquefier, the shipper’s cost typically rises by more than 1 USD — magnifying the impact of small price shifts📈
X-LNG Insight: By combining probabilistic pricing with operational fleet simulation, negotiators can quantify hidden value — transforming uncertainty into profit leverage.
In Negotiation: → Shipper discovers optimal volumes and scheduling for portfolio synergy, and can lock these into contracts to boost overall profits → Liquefier equipped with fleet insight can justify higher adders (+4.9 USD instead of +4.4 USD) → Both sides gain transparency, replacing “market price guessing” with data-backed confidence
Key Takeaway
Fleet Modelling is not just about logistics — it’s a negotiation tool. Precision simulation translates into 0.5 USD/MMBtu of pure profit advantage.
Legal Notice
Impressum
Angaben gemäß § 5 TMG
Calypso Ventures GmbH
Bismarckstraße 10/12
10625 Berlin
Handelsregister: HRB 239736 B
Amtsgericht Charlottenburg
Umsatzsteuer: DE342781749
Vertreten durch:
Michael Schach
Kontakt
Telefon: +49 30 41734423
E-Mail: [email protected]
Nutzungsvereinbarungen
Imprint
Disclosures according to German law § 5 TMG
Calypso Ventures GmbH
Bismarckstraße 10/12
10625 Berlin
Registered number: HRB 239736 B
Amtsgericht Charlottenburg (Germany)
VAT: DE342781749
Represented by:
Michael Schach
Contact
Phone: +49 30 41734423
E-Mail: [email protected]
User Agreements