Drought Limits at Panama Canal & Impacts on LNG Shipping

The Panama Canal's recent limits pose a significant challenge to LNG shipping, a fact underscored by ENEOS' willingness to pay a record premium to ensure timely passage. Calypso Commodities has undertaken an in-depth case study to assess how such limitations impact the robustness of Atlantic and global LNG portfolios, particularly those with exposure to Panama Canal's operational uncertainties.

This study has led to key insights into the strategic value of portfolio diversity in the face of logistical constraints.

Panama: Robustness of Atlantic vs. Global Portfolio

Key findings from this analysis reveal that LNG players with a diversified supply chain have a substantial advantage, allowing them to maintain operational flexibility amidst disruptions. The case study further identifies that delays and closures at the Panama Canal have far-reaching consequences, significantly disrupting fleet schedules and cargo plans.

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AI – navigating ripple effects on rescheduling

The huge ripple effects for fleet schedules and cargos, making AI based optimization for re-scheduling crucial. In addition, a diversified fleet emerges as a pivotal element for resilience. An example highlighted in the study showed a notable increase in shipping time by 44 days for a 3 MTPA LNG portfolio, increasing vessel utilization for that particular player. However, the secondary impacts on the global available shipping length are quite severe, considering the scale of affected vessels for re-routing. If you’d like to model the re-routing impacts on your portfolio and fleet, also testing the robustness of your trading strategy and schedule, contact our management team for a call.

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