CASE STUDIES / PORTFOLIO · MAY 2024
What US supply adds to a Gulf-focused LNG portfolio.
This study models the effect of adding Rio Grande supply to a portfolio based on public information about ADNOC’s LNG business.
+$225.2M
MODELLED PROFIT CHANGE · 18 ADDED CARGOES · 13 MONTHS
What changes when US supply is added?
01 · COMPARISON
The public Rio Grande agreement motivates this model. The question is how Atlantic supply changes profit and cargo allocation across an existing Gulf-focused portfolio.
MODELLED WITH X-LNG ON PUBLIC DEAL DATA PLUS OWN ASSUMPTIONS · RESULTS MAY DIFFER FROM THE REAL PORTFOLIO
US supply for European sales
The model can deliver Atlantic supply to Europe without using Suez.
Remaining price exposure
Adding Atlantic supply changes regional exposure. The portfolio still carries substantial JKM risk.
Alternative routes
Compare the available delivery routes under the study’s canal-closure assumptions.
Reassigned Gulf cargoes
US supply into Europe releases Gulf cargoes for Asian sales in the modelled plan.
The model uses 20 vessels over 13 months.
02 · PORTFOLIO
The reference portfolio combines Gulf supply, firm European sales and access to spot markets. Both cases use the same fleet and market assumptions.
20
VESSELS · PANAMA AND SUEZ CAPABLE
231
FIRM SUPPLY CARGOES FROM THE GULF
9.5%
BRENT SLOPE · RUWAIS AND DAS ISLAND
13
MONTHS · NOV 2026 TO NOV 2027
FIRM SUPPLY
- Ruwais, 142 cargoes, 3-day loading windows
- Das Island, 89 cargoes, 2-day loading windows
- 3.0 to 4.2M MMBtu per cargo
SPOT ACCESS
- Asia, priced at 90% JKM
- Europe, priced at 95% TTF
- Charter rate $46,500/day in both basins
PRICES OF 5 MAY 2024 · DELIVERY WINDOW NOV 2026 TO NOV 2027
Compare the same portfolio with and without US supply.
03 · ADDED SUPPLY
18
RIO GRANDE CARGOES OVER THE WINDOW
9%
BRENT SLOPE · HALF A POINT BELOW THE GULF
2
DAYS AVERAGE LOADING WINDOW
The model adds 18 Rio Grande cargoes. Fleet capacity, firm demand and price assumptions remain the same. X-LNG recalculates both portfolios so the comparison includes changes to existing cargo routes.
The engine then re-optimises the whole book, every cargo, ship and slot, once without and once with the new supply.
Modelled profit rises from $879.9M to $1,105.1M.
04 · PROFIT CHANGE
Adding 18 US cargoes increases portfolio profit by $225.2M. US supply covers European sales, allowing more Gulf cargoes to serve Asian markets.
WITHOUT RIO GRANDE
$879.9M
TOTAL FOB PROFIT · 13 MONTHS
WITH RIO GRANDE
$1,105.1M
TOTAL FOB PROFIT · 13 MONTHS
Modelled profit: $879,914,321 → $1,105,073,371 OVER THE 13-MONTH WINDOW
The new plan uses different shipping routes.
05 · CARGO ROUTES
The optimised Rio Grande voyages go to Europe and do not use Panama. The added Atlantic supply also reduces the need to ship Gulf cargoes through Suez.
Brunsbüttel switches from 21 Das Island + 11 Ruwais to 17 Rio Grande cargoes; the freed Gulf supply nearly doubles the Beihai spot programme. Flow changes apply to spot and optional positions only; all firm cargoes deliver in both runs.
06 · STRESS TEST I · FORCE-MAJEURE, RE-OPTIMISED UNDER A FULL CLOSURE
+$225M in modelled portfolio profit over 13 months.
The portfolio is a public-data model. These are simulated results, not ADNOC’s reported earnings or evidence of a client engagement.
JKM exposure remains.
07 · STRESS TEST II
The new supply improves the result in the tested scenarios, but much of the portfolio remains exposed to JKM. The study compares the benefit of geographical diversification with the remaining price risk.
Base prices
Uplift +$225.2M
TTF +10% · JKM -10%
Uplift shrinks to +$79.8M
Most firm sales remain JKM-linked. The 18 Atlantic cargoes reduce this price exposure but do not remove it.
Compare the resulting schedules.
08 · X-LNG RESULTS
These X-LNG views show cargo allocation and vessel schedules. They let the reader trace the profit comparison back to the modelled deliveries.
What this comparison shows.
09 · TAKEAWAYS
The model uses 20 vessels over 13 months
The reference portfolio combines Gulf supply, firm European sales and access to spot markets. Both cases use the same fleet and market assumptions.
Compare the resulting schedules
These X-LNG views show cargo allocation and vessel schedules. They let the reader trace the profit comparison back to the modelled deliveries.
Scope of the result
The portfolio is a public-data model. These are simulated results, not ADNOC’s reported earnings or evidence of a client engagement.
How the study was calculated.
10 · CALCULATION
Set up the comparison
The public Rio Grande agreement motivates this model. The question is how Atlantic supply changes profit and cargo allocation across an existing Gulf-focused portfolio.
Calculate the alternatives
The model adds 18 Rio Grande cargoes. Fleet capacity, firm demand and price assumptions remain the same. X-LNG recalculates both portfolios so the comparison includes changes to existing cargo routes.
Review the result
+$225M in modelled portfolio profit over 13 months.
Modelled results depend on the contracts, prices and operating assumptions used.